Finnish presidential election 2024

(I'm lazily mostly copy-pasting what I earlier posted elsewhere, trying to update everything changed since.)

First round will be in january and possible (in this occasion practically certain) runoff in february.

This one is going to be unusual in many ways. Because president Niinistö has been two terms he can't rerun, so the field is pretty open.

There are two ways to run.
Each party can name one candidate. There's been typically about 8 actual parties with MPs plus occasional one man parties by MPs dropped/kicked out of their parties.
The other way is running as independent, in which case you'll need to gather certain amount of signatures (I think it's 20 000).

Until now, there haven't been many independent (or minor party) candidates. 1994 there were few when we switched from electoral system to direct popular vote, but best of them finished 5th with 5% support. No independent or non-parliament party candidate has finished in top 3 since 1970's (and back in Cold War time things were different), with the exception that last time Niinistö was re-elected running symbolically as independent despite obviously having his party's support.
2012 there were only parliament party candidates and in 2006 and 2000 the independent/minor party candidates finished last with less than 1%.

But this time we have major candidates running as independent. It may also be a surprise which parties decide to set their own candidate and which support some independent.

One reason to this mess is the parliamentary election this year. That being less than year before presidential election has meant that there's relatively little time to choose candidates. But there are also some generation changes going on in major parties.


Who's running? (approximately in order of current polls)

Real chance to win:

Pekka Haavisto: A kind of favorite as he was second in last two elections and leading polls. He would be the first openly gay president. As former foreign minister, Haavisto has credibility for the job, but is hindered by coming from medium Green League party. He is one of the candidates running as independent - a bit strange and questionable move, as he is so clearly associated with Greens as long time MP and minister.

Alexander Stubb: Former PM and Coalition party leader, he's currently the main challenger to Haavisto and top candidate on Right where - see next three candidates - competition is much tougher than at Left. I was very surprised about Stubb choosing to run and the party not instead backing Aaltola, but I guess he has pretty good chances. Coalition was the winner of parliamentary election and current leader Orpo has build a shaky and already unpopular right wing government; that goes hard against them winning also presidency. Also we've just had 12 year a Coalition president. But then again in Finland presidential election isn't that much about party politics.

Mika Aaltola: Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, a real wild card from outside of actual politics. He has been constantly on TV as commentator of Ukraine War and thus became a familiar face along last year, making him a potential candidate. If Stubb hadn't run, I would've expected Coalition to back Aaltola, making him likely to face Haavisto in runoff. But now it'll be tough for him.

Olli Rehn: Governor of the Bank of Finland, a position several former presidents once held. He is also running as independent, though associated with Centre Party and has their backing. Almost like Aaltola, Rehn is bit of an outsider expert when it comes to politics. He is a colorless compromise candidate and as such has wide support; I would even say a likely favorite in runoff against any one candidate - if he can just get there.

Would need a small miracle:

Jussi Halla-aho: Leader of right-wing Finns party and current Speaker of Parliament is one of the more obvious candidates. On one hand the party has (unfortunately...) enough popularity that he realistically could make it to second round, even among this competition; but I don't believe there's any way he can win a runoff, no matter who's against him.

Jutta Urpilainen: (Not yet official candidate.) The current Finnish European Commissioner is likely candidate for Social Democrats, party that just topped polls. They really don't have good candidates, former PM Marin being too young and having just lost elections. I don't think Urpilainen can win, but at least would have visibility as only woman among major candidates. I have to wonder if SDP could decide not having their own candidate and back Haavisto? That would hugely improve his chances and in current situation his win may be best realistic result for SosDems; but it would be rather embarrassment for major party to not have their "own" candidate, at least in sense Rehn is Centre's.

No way in Hell, may not even be in the race:

Li Andersson: The leader of the Left Alliance and former Minister of Education. Doesn't have enough credibility and experience and her medium party (5th or 6th with Greens) doesn't have enough support. Also when you have a gay Green running at top, there's no need for further left candidate, even a young woman.

Sari Essayah, the leader of the Christian Democrats and current Minister of Agriculture and Forestry. 10km walk world champion. Even smaller party and little more political credits, no chance.

Paavo Väyrynen: Former Centre Party minister and biggest political joke in Finnish history. Ruined his career with ridiculous anti-EU campaigning in 90's, but just keeps running. As Centre candidate, he was second 1988, third 1994 and 2012 and 2000 narrowly failed to get the party candidacy (against prime minister Aho who just barely lost runoff to president Halonen). Väyrynen ran 2018 as independent finishing 4th (humiliating Centre Party candidate, former prime minister Vanhanen who was 5th).
There is no way Väyrynen is going to beat any of the top four.

Hjallis Harkimo: Another joke of a candidate, but at least he has the excuse for running that he's seriously trying to create a new party. Not quite "Trump of Finland" (despite having been in the same role in Finnish version of Apprentice), but another business man trying to do politics. He first became a Coalition MP but got tired of party politics and started his own one man party Movement Now which has seen minor success in local elections and got himself re-elected.
Just might win Väyrynen.

Ano Turtiainen: Former MP who was too far right for the Finns. Pro-Russian far right nutcase who'll hopefully won't even find enough support to become official candidate.

Saara Huhtasaari, sister of Finns MEP and 2018 candidate Laura Huhtasaari. Another extreme right candidate independent trying to run, it's still unclear if she'll even get enough support to officially run. At least that would be few votes away from Halla-aho...


Weird thing is that Swedish People's Party (about size of Christians, 7th/8th) isn't setting a candidate nor backing any. They couldn't possibly win (though their candidate was second back in 1994), but it's an odd weak look for a party to ignore presidential election, at least they should've decided to back someone (most likely Rehn or Stubb).

With exceptions of Väyrynen (77) and Harkimo (69), oldest of the main candidates is Haavisto at 65.

One of the absurdities of this election is that SDP, currently the main opposition and most popular party in polls, still hasn't officially named their candidate, with only couple months to election.
It's 99% sure it's Urpilainen and equally certain she has no chance of actually winning (or even getting to runoff), but they're shooting themselves in both feet with an automatic.

We will officially have 9 candidates, being the top ones of my list with the exception of Väyrynen who rather surprisingly failed to get enough supporters to run.

Looks like it'll be Stubb vs Haavisto as the major right/left candidates. It'll be tough for Rehn, Halla-Aho or Urpilainen to drop one of them from runoff - but if one could, it'd be a completely different race on the second round.
Aaltola seems to have failed disastrously in fund raising and with so many more visible and experienced candidates having joined in, his early support has faded away, I think we can count him out.
And Andersson, Essayah and Harkimo are there just to carry party banners for future elections. (Next will be European parliamentary election in June.)

Early voting has ended with record turnout.
Though turnouts have been previously low because in last three elections the winner was so clear: 2006 and 2018 re-election was practically certain and 2012 Niinistö was clear front runner after being strong second 2006.
This time we have a real race, like back in 1994 and 2000.


In polls Halla-Aho has made a disturbing push, getting close to Stubb and Haavisto. It'll be two of those in the runoff.
Current favorite is Stubb, he'll be certain winner if Halla-Aho beats Haavisto to runoff.
Should the first round somehow turn so that Stubb is out, Haavisto pretty surely beats Halla-Aho.
And in the expected runoff between Stubb and Haavisto, it badly looks like Stubb has few points advantage.

This has been unusual and surprising election, I wasn't even expecting Stubb to run, much less pass all the early favorites. But hype on Aaltola disappeared and Rehn was never able to really stand out.

I've got an idea.

We'll send you Biden and Trump.

Well, we would have some half decent extra candidates like Aaltola and Rehn to give you in trade.

Biden might even do well here. He'd be pretty centrist in our political map and we rather like a president who doesn't do too much.

@Kaunitso: Who are you hoping wins and why?

Being left leaning, I don't really have options other than Haavisto. Of all candidates I might rather pick more moderate Urpilainen, but she never had a chance, SDP messed this up not setting up their candidate much earlier.
Wouldn't mind currently fourth Rehn either, but doesn't look like he has real chance to runoff. If he somehow did make it he'd have a good odds of winning, being the most centrist - only centrist - of the four.
Aside being too much to right in economic policy, my concern about Stubb is that he's too active, wants to state his opinion on every matter. On the positive (as he is the most likely next president) that should mean the president's role and powers won't be further cut down; I feel that has gone too far along last couple decades. Stubb is still "can live with that" level.
As opposed to Halla-aho. I would compare him to Boris Johnson. Fortunately he really has no way to get elected, unless Stubb suddenly drops dead within couple days. And even then he'd have hard time against Haavisto.

Presidential election first round results (at 99,9% count):

Stubb (Coalition) 27,2%
Haavisto (independent/Green) 25,8%
----------------------------------
Halla-aho (Finns) 19,0%
Rehn (independent/Centre) 15,3%
Andersson (Left Alliance) 4,9%
Urpilainen (Social Democrats) 4,3%
Essayah (Christian Democrats) 1,5%
Aaltola (independent) 1,5%
Harkimo (Movement Now) 0,5%

Turnout 74,9%


Notable points:
- Rehn did well, above the long weak popularity of the party; good pull for Centre for the upcoming Euro elections even if he didn't make it to runoff
- Aaltola has shown it's practically impossible to come from outside politics without support of a major party; early on before most candidates were declared he was second in polls behind Haavisto, ahead of Rehn, but kept falling the further things got
- usually we don't have tactical voting, people stand behind small candidates - but then again we haven't had a close election for ages; now clearly people voted for the four candidates with realistic chances, most notably SDP and Left Alliance voters backing Haavisto instead



On second round Stubb can expect votes from those who voted Halla-aho and the three last, while Haavisto gets votes of Andersson and Urpilainen. Rehn voters are uncertain, but more likely to go with Stubb.
Aside Rehn's supporters, the decisive thing will be how many of Halla-aho's voters want to support Stubb. Some of the right-wing folks might rather stay home than go for the moderate; however they'll probably also be eager to vote against the gay Green.

With no great surprises in first round, Stubb is still favorite by few points and Haavisto will have hard time to turn this around in couple weeks.

Tomorrow's the day. Polls are around 54-46 for Stubb, Haavisto's only hope is that supporters of Halla-aho won't bother to vote in the runoff.
It's an unusual situation that low turnout would favor the Left.

And the score is...

Alexander Stubb 1,575,211/51.62%
Pekka Haavisto 1,476,548/48.38%

Turnout 70.7%

No last minute miracles.
Haavisto is now the first person to finish second in three elections. (Not bad for candidate of party that has at best been 4th biggest and usually is 5th or 6th.)


I don't expect notable changes in policies, Stubb being of same party as president Niinistö of last 12 years.
Stubb may be more internationally oriented - EU/UK/US, that is - and is active and talkative... meaning he'll likely be the most annoying president in my lifetime.

For some reason I would expect a Finnish person to have a more exotic sounding name.

That is the first time since 1946 we have president with Swedish name.
Or technically 1937 because Mannerheim had last name of German origin.

Alexander is actually his middle name he's chosen to use. His full name is Cai-Göran Alexander Stubb. "Cai" is kind of odd name, because normally Swedish version would be Caj and Finnish spelling Kai (both common as such). I don't know anyone else called Cai, itself or combined.


This just barely broke the 2000 record for closest election we've had.
Presidential elections have been by direct popular vote since 1994.

Last day of Niinistö, inauguration of Stubb tomorrow.