A rare nova explosion

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Around the world this summer, professional and amateur astronomers alike will be fixed on one small constellation deep in the night sky. But it’s not the seven stars of Corona Borealis, the “Northern Crown,” that have sparked such fascination.

It’s a dark spot among them where an impending nova event – so bright it will be visible on Earth with the naked eye – is poised to occur.

“It’s a once-in-a-lifetime event that will create a lot of new astronomers out there, giving young people a cosmic event they can observe for themselves, ask their own questions, and collect their own data,” said Dr. Rebekah Hounsell, an assistant research scientist specializing in nova events at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “It’ll fuel the next generation of scientists.”

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I am much more interested in the science behind their prediction. What methodology or reasoning are they using to predict a star going nova within a specific timeframe?

What do you think?