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Why Macron is hastily gambling on elections with ‘unpredictable consequences’ for the whole of Europe
FIVE QUESTIONS
Just before the Olympic Games, France is holding parliamentary elections. The great victory of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National in the European elections has prompted Emmanuel Macron to do so.
What is behind this big gamble by the French president?
Can a French president simply drop the cabinet if he doesn’t like the election results?
Yes, French presidents have that power according to article 12 of the constitution. The French president has ‘reserved domains’ in foreign policy and defense, but can also appoint or dismiss the prime minister, decide on a referendum and declare a state of emergency if he believes the country is under threat. Incidentally, the latter has only happened once in recent history when President De Gaulle had to respond to a coup by generals in Algeria, which was then French territory.
How painful is the defeat of Macron’s party in these European elections? The main competitor, the party of Marine Le Pen (and led by the only 28-year-old but convincing Jordan Bardella) received more than 30 percent of the votes and became more than twice as large as Renaissance, the party of Macron. The latter was even almost overtaken by the somewhat recovering socialists led by their new star Raphael Glucksmann (44). The defeat for Macron is all the more painful because he decided to campaign vigorously himself, while French presidents usually keep a low profile during European elections.
Why did voters abandon Macron?
That is still being analysed, but as in large parts of Europe, the political debate in France revolves around concerns about immigration and how it would disrupt French society. In addition, for Le Pen - just like for Wilders - aversion to Islam plays an important role. Voters also accuse Macron of being too concerned with Europe and too little with France.
Why is Macron now pushing for hasty elections in the middle of summer?
Usually, French presidents are not that impressed by the results of European elections. Macron could have said that the victory of the extreme/radical right is a trend in Europe and that he would now put his shoulder to the wheel even more. He did not do that.
According to many observers, by calling elections, the president is taking a big gamble and risks his party being wiped out in a few weeks by Le Pen and Bardella. One of those two could then become prime minister.
Party leader Marine Le Pen greets the victory together with party leader Jordan Bardella.
Macron is apparently hoping for a shock effect from these elections. And also for a shock effect during the first round of the upcoming parliamentary elections (on 30 June). In France, parliamentary elections are held over two rounds. The two parties with the most votes in the first round will go to the final two weeks later (7 July), just like in presidential elections.
Apparently Macron is betting that in the second round all parties opposed to Le Pen will unite. A possible victory will give him a new and solid mandate as president for the coming years.
A spokesperson for his own party has already said that Macron is calling for people to vote for a socialist or communist in the second round if necessary. The gamble is also that ‘protest votes’ will mainly be cast in the European elections, and that the French will vote differently when it comes to their own parliament. It has worked before in presidential elections. Only the mood in France now seems more right-wing than ever because of migration problems.
What are the foreign reactions to Macron's decision?
A ‘crazy and very risky gamble’ that ‘holds Europe hostage’, according to the international press. France is moving towards a country with a president who is accompanied by an extreme right-wing prime minister and that is an unprecedented alliance in the Republic, is the general feeling. Macron's surprising move also put pressure on the euro this morning. The Paris stock market fell nearly 2 percent on Monday, led by French banks. “If Marine Le Pen were to win, the shockwave would have unpredictable consequences: the French far-right party is hostile to the euro, NATO and military solidarity with Ukraine,” a Spanish newspaper wrote.